A-Cat Corp Forecasting Case Study Solution
Whereas,Ft is the actual demand of transformers and At is the forecasted demand oftransformers. The analysis shows that the maximum demand of the transformers would be 1129 in the fiscal year 2011. The exponential smoothing provides more accurate picture of the estimation,because of the fact that it takes into account the forecast for the most recent period of time and actual value of that time. Concisely, the method uses the difference between actual projections & what actually occurred.
One sample t-test:The one sample t test is used to analyze whether the mean of the transformers has increased or not. The analysis shows that the critical t-value is greater than the t-value and the p-value is 3.8 percent, which is not greater as compared to the significance level of 5 percent, which means that it provides a strong significant statistical evidence to reject the null hypothesis, which states that there is not any significant change in the mean number of transformers. Additionally, it also shows that the number of the transformers is likely to be equal or greater than 1000 units of transformers.
One-way ANOVA: It is one of the widely used statistical techniques, which is based on hypothesis. It is used to assess whether the number of transformers was changed from the year 2006 to 2010. The test demonstrates that the p-value is 0.010, which is lower than the significancelevel of 5 percent, which means that it provides strong significant statistical evidence to reject the null hypothesis that states that there isn’t any increase in the mean number of transformers from 2006 to 2010.
Regression analysis: It is the most powerful predictive modelling statistical tool that helps to examine the relationship between more than two variables of interest. To investigate the correlation as well as causal effect relationship betweenthe dependent (demand of the voltage regulators and television) and the independent variable (sales of the refrigerators). The analysis shows that the correlation between the sales of the refrigerator or televisionand the demand of the voltage regulators is 92.5 percent, which is positive.Hence,showing that the sales of the refrigerator has direct impact on the amount of transformers required.In addition to this, the adjusted R square is 85 percent, which means that the percentage change in the voltage regulator demand on the basis of the sales of television or refrigerator is high. The regression coefficientmeasures the degree to which changes to the one variable predict the changes in another variable. Theregression coefficient is 0.314, which stipulates that if the sale of television of refrigeratorwould increase by 1 unit, the demand for the voltage regulator would also be increased by 0.314.(Schleifer, 2017).........................
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